My piss is currently undertaking the scientific wonder of converting to steam.
I am getting fucked off with people that cannot connect the dots and see that retail trading – the stuff that Trading 212 & Plus 500 shove down your throat by way of adverts every two nanoseconds, has anything to do with the “professional” world of trading.
‘But its the same, its the same!’ I hear you cry.
Lets break this down and break a few fucking eggs in the process.
What is Trading?
Trading is the pursuit of making money from the markets in a risk controlled fashion. I would argue systematically.
If you cannot reliably/repeatedly (systematically) make money then what the fuck do you actually have? Nothing.
These are the basic tenets of system methodology – look them up.
Note – this actually covers ‘just’ putting a trade on in the markets for a client with a commission (think client needs to exchange a currency on a deal made – multiple clips of the ticket occur here).
It also covers proprietary trading where a trader may put on a trade on behalf of themselves/the firm they work for (think HFT operations, Hedge Funds and trading arms of investment banks).
Who are ‘Traders’?
Traders are either human beings or computers controlled by humans (don’t get into ML/AI – it was still programmed) that put a trade on in the financial markets in a professional capacity.
There is a big demarcation line here that will make most of the people that think they are traders balk.
If you are not managing someone else’s money then chances are you ain’t a trader.
Because go back to ‘what is trading?’ – if you are not making money in a risk controlled fashion then you ain’t trading.
Most people calling themselves ‘traders’ online are not traders – note those 200% myfxbook returns in a week/month – you cannot make those returns if you are trading.
Note, that it isn’t just me that states this – this is a clear demarcation line by HMRC and by the courts in cases that have been brought forward by HMRC by those trying to claim tax back where they list themselves as a professional trading entity – it has to meet several criteria – look it up.
Where you will eventually get to is – you cannot trade less than $250,000 to get anywhere near close enough to be considered a trader because less than that and you ain’t got enough to live off to cover basic living costs if trading 1-3% per trade.
Media / TV / Journalists / Reporters – stop calling internet marketers – ‘traders’ – they are nothing of the sort.
I have to correct journalists and reporters at the rate of two a week at present. For fuck sake stop it.
Retail ‘trading’ (bedroom ‘trading’) is so far away from professional trading in hedge funds and trading floors that I consider retail trading gambling.
Again this will make most readers balk – those educators across Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Telegram, Whatsapp and Linkedin are engaged in selling your bullshit courses on gambling platforms.
If it wasn’t gambling then why are you not making money?
– Because you don’t have enough discipline?
– Because you don’t believe hard enough?
Again – This is the equivalent of those church pastors saying your wife died from cancer because you didn’t believe in God strongly enough.
Where are all the customers yachts?
Nicking Fred Schewd’s title…
I have published on this blog at least two studies showing no one makes money ‘trading’.
This is a fucking warped dialogue in itself.
People still cling to the “fact” that someone ‘made it’ – of course they fucking did – outliers are a thing. Throw the space time continuum into that topic and you are totally fucked.
Its a fact nearly all of the ones who ‘make’ it lose it.
Where are all these bedroom ‘traders’ that have made it?
There aren’t any are there?
The stat was/is 0.03% – yet people cling to this as if its validation to throw their life and their earnings away (worse borrowing) in the pursuit of getting rich.
You are not going to get rich retail trading. The stats prove you won’t.
The reality of retail trading
Retail trading is sold to you as some sort of intellectual pursuit. Some challenge to overcome in terms of psychology and mental fortitude with the ability to be a robot and mystic technical reader of the markets to predict something you absolutely have no fucking way in hell you can predict at retail level.
– All you have available to you at retail level is price and time.
– All you have at retail level is what happened and what currently is happening.
– You have no idea on will happen in the future – NONE.
Did you get that bit?
You have absolutely no way or chance of accurately predicting 100% what the market will do in the next second let alone the next minute, day, week, month or year. None.
Yet you spend all your waking hours and money “trying” to find a way.
If only your discipline was better, if only your system was better – but you get better at these but what happens?
You still don’t make money.
But what about all these people on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Telegram, Whatsapp and Linkedin?
– They are all doing so well?
– They are all making money?
– They are all showing charts of entries and signals winning?
– The broker says 25% win?
Because if you correctly digested the above – they are all lying to you. Every single one.
Remember the stat. Only 0.03% are making consistently profitable decent returns.
Ok break it down then…
So here is the killer.
You have $1000. How the fuck are you going to turn that $1000 into $3,000,000 within 2 years?
You cannot by actually trading.
That is a fact.
It doesn’t matter if you have all the time in the world, it doesn’t matter if you have the best system in the world, it doesn’t matter if you have that bullshit compounding spreadsheet.
If you employ proper risk management you will initially not risk more than $30 each trade – how long is that going to take you to make $3,000,000?
That is even before all of the obstacles.
Say tomorrow you start ‘trading’;
– Have you got a working system?
– Have you got empirical evidence of your system showing expectancy during a given period?
– How far have you back tested it?
– Have you accounted for time you can actually trade?
Add this basic base, to the picture of people thinking they can trade full time / make a living from trading with an account less than $250,000…
– No idea if you will make any money that day.
– You work more hours than any job you would have previously done so you actually earn less per hour.
– You cannot take time off so you are glued to a chair – your health suffers in every aspect – Mentally – You don’t get out, you ignore friends/family, You add weight from little exercise, Your eyes deteriorate etc etc.
– You get no pension.
– You get no sick pay – you can’t take a day off.
– You get no holiday pay.
– Broker slips you.
– Broker adds latency.
– Broker drops connection.
– Broker doesn’t guarantee stops.
– Most brokers could go under at any minute and you never see that money in your account again.
– Broker charges you commission so doesn’t give a fuck if you win or lose – they either run their own book or hedge you.
– Broker charges you swap.
– Market whipsaws you.
– News even blows you out of position and your stop.
– Market ranges for months.
All that just to make less than you would in your 9-5.
- People call this glamorous… So much for an intellectual money making pursuit – this all sounds pretty fucking shit to me.
- Educators are selling this as a dream lifestyle.
- Internet marketers sell this as a get rich pursuit.
What happened to the trading off a laptop on a beach/by a pool?
Retail ‘trading’ is so far away from Trading that Retail “trading” needs to be classified as gambling – urgently.
Has anyone actually told you any of this?
Are you still ignoring the facts? – that only 0.03% of all of the millions of people who try, only make meager consistent profits?
These “Profits” are nothing more amazing than your 9-5 and STILL have to go through all those obstacles every single fucking day.
Do you fucking get it yet?
Here is an interesting statistic of my own;
On a platform where I test strategies I haven’t logged in for a few months – i.e. no trades have been made by me.
For the month of July I am currently in the top 38% – I HAVEN’T EVEN TRADED.
No trades for July, none.
I am in the top 38%, out of thousands of ‘traders’ – ‘traders’ so fucking good, that they bothered to put up a strategy – which takes going through a month long process and actually being published, to then actually trading…
I HAVEN’T EVEN TRADED AND I AM BEATING 62%.
You must have read the statistic where ‘trader’s cannot even outperform the S&P 500?
You will not get rich retail trading forex/bitcoin/equities – ever.
The only people making money in trading are the educators, gurus, course sellers, affiliate scammers, brokers, market makers, book sellers & publishers – these people are people who could not do it – NO ONE CAN.
Of course they will say I am wrong and that you can make it.
They couldn’t trade consistently profitable accounts so they have to sell something to you – They worked out it is far more profitable with less risk.
They make far, far, far, more money per month than they ever could trading – that is the whole point.